By Nicolas Storer Rios ‘28
Tomorrow, voters across all of the United States will decide the outcome of elections at many levels of state and federal government. Pennsylvania has comparatively fewer elections than other states, as many of Pennsylvania’s statewide offices hold their elections on presidential election years. The midterms will indicate how Americans are feeling about the current presidency, especially for federal races.
The most significant election being held in Pennsylvania this year is the governor’s race. Incumbent Democratic governor Josh Shapiro was first elected in 2022 by a large margin, and 2026 will likely be no different. According to recent polling from Quinnipiac University, Josh Shapiro’s approval is at around 63% of Pennsylvania voters, with just 30% disapproving. For comparison with other relevant politicians, senator John Fetterman’s approval is slightly underwater, and president Donald Trump’s approval is majorly underwater. With his high approval combined with disapproval at the Republican Party governing the nation, Josh Shapiro is heavily favored to win re-election, and political pundits rate the race as “likely Democratic” or “solidly Democratic.” For Lancaster County, the question may not be “will Shapiro win the state?”, but instead, “will Shapiro win our county?”.
One federal race will be on the ballot for Lancaster County voters this year – the election for Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district in the House of Representatives. Incumbent Lloyd Smucker represents a solidly Republican seat that includes all of Lancaster County and the southern half of York County. He is being challenged by the Democratic candidate, Lancaster nurse Nancy Mannion. Historical priors indicate that this race is not competitive. Lloyd Smucker won re-election by near or above 20 points in all of his races since 2018, and, despite a favorable national environment for Democrats, it is unlikely that Nancy Mannion will be able to overcome the district’s strong partisanship.
In the northern half of Lancaster County, voters will decide the outcome of a very important race for the Pennsylvania State Senate in the 36th district. State Senate elections are held every four years, with half of the districts having their election in a presidential year and the others having their election in a midterm year. The state Senate district that corresponds to southern Lancaster County held their election in 2024. In district 36, their last general election was held in 2022. However, the resignation of incumbent Republican Ryan Aument prompted a special election in 2025, which Democratic Party candidate James Malone unexpectedly won. The election this year will decide which party gets to keep the seat until 2030. Retaining the 36th district is key for Pennsylvania Democrats in their effort to win the state Senate. Recent polls indicate a very close race; State Navigate’s most recent poll of the district found only a two percent gap between candidates James Malone and Tom Jones, with Jones leading. If Malone wins, it is quite likely that Pennsylvania Democrats will win the state Senate for the first time since 1993.
Nine Pennsylvania State House elections will be held in Lancaster County this year. These seats are elected on a two-year basis. Out of the nine, two are currently held by Democrats: the 96th and 49th, represented by Nikki Rivera and Ismail Smith-Wade-El respectively. These representatives are not considered at risk for re-election loss.
The 98th, 37th, 99th, 43rd, 41st, 97th and 100th are held by Republicans Tom Jones, Mindy Fee, David Zimmerman, Keith Greiner, Brett Miller, Steven Mentzer and Bryan Cutler, respectively. Only Tom Jones is retiring this year, in order to run for the aforementioned 36th Senate district. Out of all those seats, only the 41st is expected to be competitive this year. The district is based out of western Lancaster County, and includes parts of East and West Hempfield townships, Manor Township, and the boroughs of Mountville and Columbia. Brett Miller won by over 10 points in 2024, but Democratic strength at the national level and Josh Shapiro leading the ballot could make this a flip to Democratic candidate Brad Chambers. A recent poll by State Navigate found him leading Miller by three points, notably inside the 4.6-point margin of error. If Pennsylvania Democrats win this seat, they would expand their two-seat majority in the State House.
Lastly, one ballot measure will be present in November. Ballot measures are government decisions that citizens can vote on. These can be statewide, countywide, or even as local as a township or a city. Lancaster County as a whole will vote on whether a new property tax should be established to fund local public libraries. Public libraries are struggling from limited funding and are unable to pay their staff competitive wages or offer similar services to other libraries. The tax would add $55 to the property tax per $100,000 worth of real estate of homeowners. The measure is supported by staff and volunteers of libraries, and opposed by the Lancaster County Republican Party and Republican municipal officials.
Sources
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3970
https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/pa/hd-41-poll-october-2026